NBA championship contenders, 2023-24

Before they make the trades.

There will be a million trades at the 2023 NBA draft and we dig it.

For now, though, we’re stuck with last year’s rosters, last year’s nags. Until the NBA shapes up via transaction and signing this offseason, we count eight championship contenders. Eight!

Listed in whatever order upsetting () the most.

DENVER NUGGETS

The Nuggets worked 102 games in 2022-23, no problem. It’s the next 100 games, the ones champs play against opponents out to make corny statements. Denver’s problem is every reigning champion’s, it is extremely hard to repeat.

Every Nugget game is circled next season, but NBA personnel will also use Nugget nights as impromptu in-season benchmarks. Shooters looking to keep a spot in the rotation will get extra sleep before the Nuggets game. Coaches pushing to save a gig or general managers digging in on a look-at-me trade, they’ll all use perceived effort against Denver as the divining rod.

It is extreme pressure plus another 100-ish games, but the Nuggets can handle it. This team is uniquely qualified for its assignment.

Yet a bunch of other NBA champions similarly owned these features and didn’t repeat, nobody’s fault but the burden. Defending champions can carry the banner proudly for months in an apparent back-to-back bid, before the weight of it all debilitates momentum in an unseen instant. Nobody will have done anything wrong, but everything will have gone terribly wrong.

Either that, or literal pain. Most back-to-back title runs are either slightly or completely knackered by injury: Kawhi Leonard’s foot, Steph’s knee/Draymond’s suspension, Klay Thompson/Kevin Durant’s severe tears, Khris Middleton. Go back a little earlier and we can include Kevin Garnett’s leg problem in 2009, Tim Duncan’s knee surgery in 2000.

In this century the only healthy champs to fade were the Spurs’ back-to-back attempts, this year’s Warriors (too old and too tired to do it twice), those 2014 Heat (over it) and 2011 Lakers (after back-to-back titles everyone was sick of each other).

The Spurs failed to repeat for various enervating reasons (Duncan’s surgery, Derek Fisher’s shot in 2004, the best 4:44 of DaSagana Diop’s career in 2006, no foul on Derek Fisher in 2008).

The historical lesson inherent is Denver either wins it all over again, or the club is struck by some heretofore unfathomable terror which will haunt the franchise and its followers all summer and potentially for decades to follow, until our planet becomes uninhabitable.

Which still sounds better than Derek Fisher knocking you out of the playoffs.

OLD DENVER VIDEO

Look at how everyone gunned for Jalen Rose and the Nuggets in 1995, and they’d only made it out of the first round the year before:

If you’d like to watch a watermark-free run-through of each of Jalen’s assists that evening, click here.

BOSTON CELTICS

Nobody’s winning a title with a first-year wunderkind stressing for every second. Steve Kerr won a ring with zero coaching experience in 2015 but Kerr owned a cushy TNT invite waiting for him if his new job ran belly-up, less pressure. Tyronn Lue (a four-year assistant) won a title in 2016 obsessing over every possession but the Cavaliers only had to listen to Lue for 41 regular season games.

After 41 games in 2022-23, emerging from sleazy circumstance, the Celtics were 29-12 under three-year assistant coach Joe Mazzulla. The team never acknowledged its tension, let alone full opinions of Ime Udoka’s departure, it caught up to them.

Also Jaylen Brown hurt his hand, couldn’t shoot, could barely dribble.

Basketball happens. Boston feels like a letdown after five Eastern finals appearances in seven seasons, but winning a title is hard, prospects have to align, nobody is guaranteed anything. Can’t blame the haywire when everything goes awry, we need that stuff for the farm.

In the meantime, Boston approaches another full decade grinning in with a Chance.

C’s fans aren’t smitten with simply being part of the championship conversation, but this is their lot in luck after nailing the Tatum and Brown drafts and whiffing with sure things in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Don’t laugh, the second pair were far more fit to lead in 2017.

This will get tougher, Al Horford will fade, trade-bait Malcolm Brogdon turns 31 in Dec., but Tatum and Brown will get better. Way, better.

Unless the Celtics do some doofus move and trade one of them.

OLD CELTIC VIDEO

Shawn Kemp scoring all over Rick Pitino’s Celtics:

Pitino and the Celtics signed away the Cavaliers’ second-leading scorer in 1997, Chris Mills, leaving Cleveland with only a second-round pick (rookie Cedric Henderson) to fill in at swingman.

But the 27-year old Mills didn’t like Pitino’s two-a-day training camp practices so Rick traded his top free agent signing — six years, $26.1 million — to the Knicks during exhibition season for Walter McCarty and Dontae’ Jones, two second-year forwards Jeff Van Gundy didn’t want anything to do with. Plus rookie big man John Thomas.

“We’re playing for right now,” New York coach Jeff Van Gundy said. “I think people get too concerned with youth. You want players who are good and who are in their prime.”

Pitino coached or coached against all three youngsters in the NCAA, none of them were terribly good at the NBA level (McCarty had his moments), each of them had guaranteed contracts.

"Jones is the X factor," Pitino said. "He could be a great player for us. Or he could be a bust. I know he single-handedly busted our tails when he was at Mississippi State."

The Knicks started a 34-year old power forward plus a small forward in a back brace, yet they still dealt McCarty and Jones. This ain’t Mississippi State, Rick.

Pitino waited a little longer to deal his second free agent signing, waiting until his second training camp to swap Travis Knight and his seven-year, $22 million deal to Los Angeles for Tony Battie. To clear space for Battie, Pitino waived Dontae’ Jones.

Cedric Henderson ended up making All-Rookie Second Team in 1997-98, alongside shooting guard teammate Derek Anderson, providing a more dynamic duo for Cleveland than the departed Mills and Bobby Phills (who’d left to join Charlotte as a free agent the same week the Cavs lost Mills).

The All-Rookie First Team in 1997-98 included two other Cavaliers, Brevin Knight and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, it was a strong Cavalier lineup, making the playoffs while Boston watched.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension shouldn’t kick the Grizzlies out of the West’s top tier, this is the same outfit which ran a 30-15 record with Morant out of the lineup these last two seasons, with a whole lot of rookies taking up valuable roster space in 2023.

Everyone’s a year older in 2023-24, which helps everyone but Steven Adams, whom we can’t help wonder about returning to full gaiety. The Grizzlies will take some licks as Morant misses the first 30 percent of the season, with Adams potentially at a slice of what he was.

By the time Morant is back, however, the Grizzlies have likely learned to live without such things. Mainly because Jaren Jackson Jr. is so supreme, possibly because Dillon Brooks isn’t using up possessions anymore.

If Adams requires as much time recovery time as Morant’s suspension demands, the Grizzlies can absolutely hold serve among the West’s middle ranks before launching a late charge. And the playoffs where anything can happen. Broken hands, but for the other team.

Jackson changes everything for this club, he can cover so much and doesn’t turn 24 until training camp. This should be a special year for him and, by extension, Grizzlies fans. Memphis has a pair to carry them through four rounds of basketball.

OLD GRIZZLIES VIDEO

Does Memphis mind that we bring up Vancouver, constantly?

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

This team knows what it is in for and likely up for all suggestions. The Warriors probably alternate days feeling hundreds of thousands of miles away from Denver’s title parade, and the nights when they think about the second round. When the W’s were just a bucket or two away from a slopfest against Denver, where anything could happen with Looney.

This is why the Warriors are the best bet to round the corners, trim the fat, deliver something metric like the Lakers in 1991. It probably won’t be a trade acquisition solving every Warrior issue but internal development, Andrew Wiggins in prime, Klay Thompson against second-unit lineups, Stephen Curry with the hot hand. Fuckin’ Looney, mate. He’s mad.

If the group returns whole, if trade offers for Jordan Poole fail to return anything serious, Golden State will know what it takes. Maybe not seven games in every round, but close shaves in every contest. The Warriors want to peak in May and June again, I trust them better than anyone else to handle autumn and winter.

Now that Draymond Green already punched a guy.

OLD GOLDEN STATE VIDEO

Remember the time the Golden State Warriors didn’t draft Kevin Garnett No. 1 overall in the 1995 NBA draft?

Kevin Garnett does. This was his first game against Warriors is above, 2-6 shooting. In his next three games against GSW 19-year old rookie KG combined to hit 20-38 from the floor, 45 points.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

Philadelphia could return the whole outfit but the outcome won’t matter until Joel Embiid proves he can top off a long regular season with a healthy postseason.

He’s like 7-2 and does sumo ballet for 65 games a year, it’s understandable if he shaves a little cartilage come April.

Which is awful, because who is more dominant than Joel Embiid? Nobody stands tallest on both sides of the ball, an inarguable 1A at worst behind Jokic in the run for the league’s best player. If you had to pick a single NBA player for a single healthy game you’d pick Nikola, but you’d better think a long time about it, first, because my team picked Embiid.

But Embiid cannot be counted on in the playoffs, not because he isn’t the best player on the floor in the playoffs, Joel is, but because he’s always the one most limited by injury. It isn’t his fault, he’s like 7-5.

Playoff breakdowns every year aren’t a given, one of these seasons everything will line up and Joel will play four rounds, and that’s the cruelest carrot for Sixers fans.

But this is why fans line up. If Joel Embiid’s season were allowed to start in February, he might give Philadelphia fo’-fo’-fo’-fo’, a healthy Embiid might deliver the greatest postseason run any player ever dominated with. Everything is in him, and that will last at least through 2024.

One of these years the bad luck has to break. It has to. He’s 7-7.

OLD SIXERS VIDEO

Clarence Weatherspoon was 6-1.

Maybe 6-2.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Khris Middleton was always the most tenuous of the secondary stars, biding his time until Jamal Murray’s first All-Star appearance, and another knee injury keeps Khris out until July. Milwaukee hopes.

Middleton can opt out of his $40 million deal for 2023-24, possibly sign one more commensurate with his output while adding a few guaranteed seasons to his (potentially pain-wracked) future.

MKE’s best option is to run it back, the counter of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday is too severe to overlook. When healthy this group can smother anyone, it could start a giant dweeb in the fifth position for 70 games and still perform like a championship contender.

These are old dogs, Mike Budenholzer perked the absolute best out of them with his brand of defense, top-four again in 2023. Brook Lopez was born in 1988, Jrue Holiday the first person to enter the NBA born in the 1990s, these are the defensive lynchpins and Bucks fans are allowed to worry about however many months and years the pair have remaining.

Barring a trade, the role players have to rise in the postseason, the Bucks don’t boast a lot of room for internal development. The club’s best young’ish player, Bobby Portis (who turns 29 next February), works the same position as Giannis (29 in December) and Lopez. The club’s other good young player, MarJon Beauchamp, isn’t all that good. The 27-year old Jevon Carter, absolutely necessary, is a free agent.

The team’s best ideas last season were Goran Dragic and Meyers Leonard, we hope that was more a function of the market than a recognition of the front office’s list of Best Players Available.

It will take a person who is often the best player in basketball to have the season of his life. Given health, Milwaukee is as great as any team in this league.

OLD BUCKS VIDEO

The night P.J. Carlesimo apparently instructed his Trail Blazers to show hard.

Vin Baker scored his Buck career-high 41 points in this contest because Chris Dudley and Arvydas Sabonis charging ball-handlers on pick and roll, that’s why.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

LeBron’s offseason thus far is bookended by an incredible (literally) retirement threat and social media captions possibly aimed at the head coach of the Nuggets, who is currently sleeping. A lame start to summer, following a season Los Angeles should be proud of.

Save for the unpleasant re-recognition of Anthony Davis’ every-other-game limitations, the postseason was a smashing success for these Lakers. The group squeezed the absolute best out of its veteran pickups and developed playoff victories off the work of a second-year, two-way guy. Dennis Schröder was an all-year defender. Russell Westbrook and D’Angelo Russell combined for over 2000 minutes at point guard yet the club made the Western finals. What didn’t work out, Malik Beasley?

But that may have been it. The Lakers are only ahead of the Kings and Suns and Cavaliers because nobody’s made a legal trade yet.

Unless Anthony Davis manages to pack four-first-round-pick-ferocity into every postseason performance, the Lakers are a deep lunge. LeBron James turns 39 in December yet he could capably re-create his age-38 season (29-8-7) without much hitch, a lot could go right for the Lakers in 2023-24, but that’s also the club’s only hope.

Beyond the wish for an all-world season from Davis, the carrying-type we saw down the stretch in spring and in spots through the winter. Davis is gifted and intelligent enough to drag a club from October through June, especially after averaging only 60 games a season through his first 11 campaigns. Barring a helpful trade, this season has to be in 2023-24.

Maybe AD should row out to Montana and meet Phil Jackson, learn to see through the sport, jet ski a little, listen to an off-putting comment about life vests, complain about posses, whatever. Move a few logs:

The Lakers did marvelously at the trade deadline, treating Los Angeles to championship contention yet again. The Lakers will have to do it all over again in the summer.

It was always going to be this way, top-heavy is tough, it means wishing upon Malik Beasley.

MIAMI HEAT

Beal would be some shit, only worth all that dough on the back end if stays in shape with a massage parlor like Miami’s.

In Miami, he is worth that contract (four years, $207.74 million, $57.13 owed in 2026-27). Dallas does not offer an elite fit. Orlando would, and features tax benefits, Phoenix works but the Los Angeles clubs are hopelessly capped-out in any deal. Beal has to approve any move, and with that contract, he’s far from a deal.

Except in Miami. This is the team that constructed a five-team trade with Roberto Duenas, ahead of the 2005-06 title run. Look at all these names:

The Miami HEAT announced today that they have acquired All-Star forward Antoine Walker from the Boston Celtics, guard Jason Williams, forward James Posey, and guard Andre Emmett from the Memphis Grizzlies and the draft rights to center Roberto Duenas from the New Orleans Hornets in a five-team trade.

The HEAT traded Eddie Jones to the Memphis Grizzlies, Rasual Butler to the New Orleans Hornets, and a 2006 second round draft pick, a conditional second round draft pick, Qyntel Woods and the draft rights to Albert Miralles to the Boston Celtics. Additionally, Memphis sent Greg Ostertag to the Utah Jazz and the Jazz sent Curtis Borchardt to the Celtics, Raul Lopez to the Grizzlies and Kirk Snyder to the Hornets.

Quick hit on each name.

Antoine Walker — greatest three-point shootout contestant.
Eddie Jones — traded from the Lakers ahead of Los Angeles’ championship year, traded from the Heat ahead of Miami’s championship year.
Qyntel Woods — sped without a license and insurance (but with weed), offered the arresting officer a basketball card as identification, paid $1096 fine.
Albert Miralles — famed director.
James Posey — told “way to know your role” in 2006 championship locker room by a visiting Scottie Pippen, and beamed.
Rasual Butler — passed away in 2018.
Chris Borchardt — I think this was the first player whose girlfriend Bill Simmons lusted over in print.
Greg Ostertag — slapped by Shaq, who did not apologize in person: “My phone ain’t rang,” said Ostertag. “The only thing he’s done is through the media.”
Raul Lopez — wore tinted glasses when he met NBA media for the first time.
Roberto Duenas — Chicago draft pick, another wasted Bulls asset Miami turned into a championship run.
Kirk Snyder — arrested in 2009 for beating someone up a couple miles away from where I used to live, Snyder pled insanity and served his time, was released from prison in 2011 and went on to play three more seasons of professional basketball.
Jason Williams — wore a Ho Depot t-shirt.

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